| Errors In Human Cognition (page 5) | |||
| Quotes and paraphrases of noted psychologists and authors | |||
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Error Beliefs & fallacies Books & software
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People will only do the effort to learn and retain an idea that can help them to reach their goals.
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To be successful in the business world we need to check our bright ideas against the territory. Our enthusiasm must be restrained long enough for us to analyze our ideas critically.
... people tend to be insufficiently conservative or 'regressive when making predictions....[For example] shareholders expect a company that has had a banner year to earn as much or more the next [even in the absence of any change in product(s)/service(s) offered and company policy/procedure(s) implemented]. The predicted performance is simply matched to [the observed] performance without taking into account the likely [subsequent] regression that extreme values on one of two related variables tend to be matched by less extreme values on the other.... When one score is extreme, its counterpart tends to be closer to the average. It is a simple statistical fact. Thomas Gilovich, How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life, 1991 —·•·—·•·—·•·—·•·—·•·—·•·—·•·—·•·—·•·—·•·— | ||
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