page 5 - Selecting Decisions: A Decision Making Guide
The following serves as a thorough decision-making guide so that nothing may subsequently become overlooked, assuming you have adequate time to consider all the steps. And certainly these steps aren't chiseled in stone! They may be followed in any order, not necessarily sequentially, and even all simultaneously!

• FIRST: Already Prepared? or Consult? or Brainstorm?

• Step I   - If possible, write it down, type it in or record it in some way
• Step II  - Brainstorm: Imagine ALL possible courses of action
• Step III - Brainstorm: Imagine ALL potential consequences to each action
• Step IV - Consider the pros and cons to each alternative
• Step V   - Brainstorm: get ALL your priorities in order
• Step VI - Decisions of emotion and influence

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• Step VII - Brainstorm: Recognize your assumptions
• Step VIII- Decisions of belief
• Step IX   - Beware established customary responses
• Step X     - Beware fallacious reasoning and other cognitive shortcomings

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• Step XI   - Brainstorm: Recognize ALL possible variables that may influence (or may have influenced) the situation — Antecedent, Concurrent, Consequent
• Step XII - Brainstorm: Recognize ALL possible exceptions
• Step XIII- Brainstorm: Discover alternate analytical methods or approaches for solving the problem
• Step XIV - Brainstorm: Discover specific data or knowledge that might subsequently yield a better solution
• Step XV   - Is it RIGHT? Or does it just seem right?
  • A Decision Making Flowchart

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• Step XVI   - Willingness to decide RIGHT yet unpopular
• Step XVII - Analysis for error: What to do if things don't go as planned?
• Step XVIII- If you have time, research some more
• Step XIX   - If you have the resources, consult a professional
• Step XX     - Your final decision

None of us is born knowing what to do in each and every situation that may be encountered in the courses of our human lives. Neither are we born knowing how to approach any given situation so that our own innate emotional predispositions and cognitive shortcomings cannot interfere with or in some way impede our decision-making and guide us down a wrong mental road.

  Cautious and wise decisions are not an outgrowth of experience or formal education alone. Our human minds are powerful and clever enough to introspect, discuss, hypothesize, test and subsequently discover certain truths, rules or mental algorithms that we can use as tools or guides through unfamiliar mental terrain, but relying too confidently on self-discovery alone without seeking any broader scientific validity could lead us to fanatical beliefs which might prompt devastating consequences to poorly judged or misguided decisions. Experience does help, but experience lies far away from being a persistent provider of infallible direction. Formal education helps as well, unless it falls short of providing pertinent specialized training or knowledge that's needed to effectively navigate through some particular situation.

  Imagining possibilities, or brainstorming, constitutes an effective means of circumventing these problems, but imagining e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g is time-consuming and requires protracted mental effort, two enduring qualities that we quick-fix, lazy humans prefer wherever possible to avoid. Without ample time and effort, we humans don’t imagine e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g. Furthermore, imagining possibilities in itself hosts a replete set of intrinsic limitations, to an extent influenced by our already-limited experiences and memories. (But why should we expect otherwise? Certainly we cannot expect perfection out of biologically-contrived hardware!)

  Always lying dormant in our minds is an inexorable, inherent propensity to assuming and overlooking. Always must we be aware of this humanly potential for oversight and blunder, because even when we do have ample time for careful analysis, imagination, observation and deliberation, we still assume and forget! And at times we even assume that we aren’t assuming!!! Can we humans get any dumber than this?!

  We live in a world of illusions! But we humans usually don't face them ALL or face them frequently enough to consistently remember them. We forget them, move on, and assume once again ... until alas yet another hits us squarely in the face! All these little illusions that we all eventually stumble upon in one way or another in the courses of our lives may at times seem trivial: "He said 'yes,’ but he meant 'no,’ ” or "It looked easy but was actually extraordinarily complex!” or "They aimed to plan safely, but they all forgot one consummately important consideration!” and so forth. Little illusions such as these sometimes may seem trivial, but they can bear considerable importance when we are planning for future events and attempting to prepare robustly for all potential subsequent possibilities.

  Always must we remember that how accurately we may perceive a situation subsequently determines how effectively we may think about it — imagine and prepare for it. If we overlook any tiny subtlety in our initial perception(s), all our subsequent planning will likely prove erroneous, and we may just have to start all over again. We must realize that at times what may seem true may NOT actually be so once ALL possible avenues, factors, variables, special cases, rare exceptions, possible underlying causes, potential subsequent consequences, potential emotional responses, potential interpretations or mis-rationalizations, and finally any immediate and initiate responsibilities are COMPLETELY taken into consideration. The RIGHT option to choose is itself limited to our very recognition of ALL choices ... utilizing ALL information! Our foresight at times may become a bit shortsighted because of our own inherent utter ignorance and inability to imagine all ALL of the time.

  It is precisely here where professional decision-making differs from impromptu decision-making (that is, the decision-making that we all engage in on a daily basis). Whereas the non-professional certainly is not expected to know e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g about whatever scenario he/she may be deciding over, the professional is! The professional is expected to know e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g about what he or she endeavors to do, lead and accomplish … and to an exceedingly detailed degree! Any breach in professional competence represents a potential for what we in modern society have come to dub “professional negligence.” As a professional decision-maker, knowing ALL about what you are attempting to accomplish is expected of you! Know your craft, and know it well, or find someone else who can do that for you! If you haven’t all the resources or time needed for achieving total preparation and overview, you certainly should at a minimum find yourself necessarily exercising the appropriate concern over matters to do what best you can do with whatever resources and time you do have available. Your compassion to safeguard all others from possibilities perhaps inadequately prepared against should keep all your personal energies focused sharply at prevention and protection against any unknown possibility.

  In a wheelbarrow, the loaded lesson is this: Where assumption may lead to oversight, total overview and verification lead to victory. "Confidently" believing at times that we may effectively “cross the river when we reach it,” that we need not exert any extra effort at preparation in advance to imagine where matters may be headed so as to do what we can now in anticipation of what may happen later (that is, unconcernedly assuming we aren’t assuming!) and consequently attempt to navigate our way around those predicaments which we may know nearly nothing about is, of course, foolhardy. Nuances are typically overlooked when a decision-maker is attempting to manage a scenario that he or she knows little or absolutely nothing about. Guess-estimates always carry a probability of being wrong estimates and wherever possible ought to be avoided entirely if we don’t want anyone to perhaps suffer the consequences of making a wrong estimate.

All opinions expressed in this web site, unless otherwise noted, are my own, Michael Gaspard. If you notice any errors or have any suggestions for improvement, please let me know by e-mailing webmaster@mdpme.com. Thank you!

This web page was last updated on Monday, November 1, 2004.
http://www.mdpme.com/decision.htm

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