Step VII ... Brainstorm: Recognize Your Assumptions

No matter who you are or what decision you are deciding, you are making some assumptions. Whether you recognize them or not, they are there, lurking in the dark, waiting to surprise or fool you when at last you discover their less than benign presence!

That may be a bit dramatic, but it clearly drives the point home. We all intuitively make assumptions about reality and how we expect it to behave each minute of each day. Unfortunately, as a lengthy record of all the blunders in human history attest, some of these assumptions that we make of or expectations that we have for the real world surrounding us stay with us as we live our lives day-to-day, even when we try to avoid them in our professional decision-making.

The problem is that Reality doesn't care what we think of it or how we expect it to behave. Reality is a perpetually incorrigible problem child; all we can do is brainstorm and prepare for each possible sudden outburst if we are to avoid suffering any serious repercussions.

This step could easily have been dubbed, "Discover Your Creativity," because that is exactly what you are about to do. Creative people have learned how to work around all those common assumptions that we have all somehow acquired to discover some hidden truth or some new way of thinking that no one hitherto had ever much considered.

Learn to introspect to recognize those assumptions that are confining your choices. Write them down! Make a list! Then, ask yourself, "Are those assumptions truly and generally valid? What research or consultation should I pursue to ascertain their validity before relying on them as sufficient justification for my decision?" or "Is there not a way that I can somehow overcome or work around those assumptions?" "Can I not brainstorm a bit to recognize some way to sidestep the implied limitation(s)?"

As an example, if you are in charge of deciding which rules to devise so as to guarantee safety for all who may enter a certain, say, office space, don't assume that everyone entering will be well-behaved. Joe Bob may decide to bring his children and their 10 little friends over one day. Worse still, suppose one of them is carrying a little rod and reel ... with a real hook on the end of that line! ... or another two have a couple really cute kitties with them. Should some ground rules be laid in advance to perhaps prevent such a possibility from resulting in an unwanted accident (..hook snags secretary in some unwanted place? ...kitten jumps on keyboard and deletes 100 customer invoices?)?

Remember always to prepare for the unexpected, to imagine the not-so-obvious. Think about the young, sick, elderly and handicapped (physically and mentally), the prosperous as well as the disadvantaged, the arrogant as well as the humble, the angry as well as the cheerful ... and even the mourning. But don't stop there ... the hurried as well as the complacent, the honest as well as the dishonest, the drunk as well as the sober. Are you prepared for someone who suddenly has an asthma attack? heart attack? epileptic seizure? etc. Learn to identify the basic assumptions resting within the foundation of your decisions so as to avoid overlooking something which may perhaps require your greater attention if something unexpected is to be avoided later.

Finally, don't ever let anyone sway you into assuming that they have knowledge which they clearly don't have.... Prove it to me, or lose me.

Step VIII ... Decisions of Belief

When we imagine particular events, we sometimes utilize personal beliefs that help us to generalize and simplify the mental work needed to effectively imagine the scenario. Consequently, certain subtleties are sometimes overlooked or completely ignored due to our — perhaps stubborn — tenacity to cling to those cherished beliefs.

Belief planning has no place in professional decision-making. Although, certainly, sometimes we may not have the data, means or time necessary to adequately test certain beliefs, we must always consider the consequences involved in assuming their validity in light of the possibility that they may be untrue, however strongly we would perceive or want otherwise.

The problem is that when we fail to recognize the limitations inherent to assuming validity for our personal beliefs, we are setting ourselves up for the possibility of making a decision with perhaps grossly irrational consequence(s). Sometimes, the overlooked factors creep into the planned scenario and devastate all our planning, however good the intentions may have been at the outset. The result, of course, is yet another lesson in humanity's long list of lessons learned through trial-and-error.

The point is that you should never derive a professional decision from a personal belief without first seeking broader scientific verification of its validity before relying on it as justification for that particular decision. Or, where scientific verification is impossible in the time frame within which you must make your decision, you should always consider the possible consequences involved — however improbable any particular one may seem to be — to your assumption of validity in light of the possibility that it may, in fact, turn out to be untrue, inaccurate or more narrowly applicable than you would prefer.

Finally, also note that even when you seek professional advice, a professional belief is still an item of contention: consider that there are other professionals who would likely disagree. Always remember to stick to the facts, to the tried and true scientific method of formulating hypotheses, experimenting to test their validity and repeating those experiments to either verify or contradict the initial results. Carefully consider the consequences should that belief turn out to be inaccurate or untrue where the time or means is unavailable to perform such a scientific inquiry.

Step IX ... Beware Established Customary Responses

The world is changing! ...and will continue to do so for quite some time into the future! What may be accepted as customary or appropriate today may easily become outdated or modified tomorrow! This is our present-day world. Perhaps far, far into the future shall our technological capabilities become more easily predictable and steady-state, but for the moment they are rapidly expanding and will continue to do so for quite some time. You must make note of this before justifying a decision according to "what the standard procedure or practice is."

Beware that, before you make a huge investment in something, perhaps you should check to learn whether some alternate means may become available, say, in a few years, which would yield the same results but at a significantly cheaper cost. Realize that, in some cases, years or even decades may pass before a “better way” is finally recognized as a consequence of exhaustive research, analysis or even some accidental discovery. Might there later be a cheaper way? safer way? more efficient? more responsible? selfless or compassionate? Imagine the consequences should your perceptions stray off the mark. What safeguards do you have in place in the event that things don't go quite as planned? Recognize also that sometimes short-term diversions or losses can lead to significantly greater long-term gains.

Also, beware of possible security concerns: Could someone perhaps take advantage of your "customary response" in a way that would certainly not be in your own personal favor?

This is where staying informed and up-to-date could prove the difference between making a good choice versus making a choice to regret later. Professional clubs and organizations, scientific abstracts and publications, magazines and periodicals, newspapers and web sites can all help you keep abreast of the latest developments and occurrences pertinent to your own particular occupation.

Step X ... Beware Fallacious Reasoning and other Cognitive Shortcomings

Effective fallacious reasoning exists because humans are emotional. We are innately selfish, gregarious and just plain lazy: Just observe the behavior of any child or teenager growing up!

Because of these inherent shortcomings, we are prone to being duped by arguments that appeal to our emotional side. Their effectiveness rests on our trust in the speaker(s) using them and our ignorance or lack of preparation to help guard ourselves from falling prey to their deceptive enticements.

There is no space here to discuss all the fallacious and misperceptive tendencies in human reasoning, but I will discuss three common faults in human reasoning of significant interest for professional decision-makers. For a more complete discussion, I would refer you to the extensive list (with examples!) included at this web site — special thanks to Professor Stephen Downes — at Beliefs & Fallacies.⁶

1. Don't allow your own inherent selfishness to interfere with the final decision you make. Certainly, you want some selfish outcome to your decision, but don't be so ambitious at striving toward your goals as to overlook considerations of what is right, responsible and safe. Be willing to take a few detours and make a few precautions along the way.

2. Remember not to let your own inherent gregariousness trick you into submitting to "peer pressure" in your professional outlook. Just because all your, say, immediate competitors or associates are "doing it" doesn't imply that you should "do it" also. Perhaps you can divert your resources to something leading to a greater outcome later on. Carefully consider the alternatives.

   Similarly, don't allow the image of another to influence you into using your resources to match it or to create a better one for yourself. "Keeping up with the Jones's next door" could prompt you into diverting your attention and resources away from something else that would lead to an alternate, more desirable outcome.

   Finally, remember that wanting to win the respect or admiration of others must never divert your focus away from what is right, responsible and safe. Sometimes, the right decision is an unpopular one, and only in time shall you receive the deserved recognition for making that unpopular — but just — decision.

3. Perhaps the most common fault in human cognition is our tendency to reduce our problem-solving to incidences of trial-and-error without paying attention to or establishing any formal sense of priority. Don't "try it" and "worry about the consequences later" without first realizing potential consequences which you may want to avoid. Take a moment to put your imagination to work, and consider possible issues of safety or any pertinent criticisms to your decision that may ensue once it is implemented. Consider your priorities.

Learn to identify your underlying, ulterior motives and/or moods driving your decision-making so as to avoid allowing them to lead you onto some mental avenue which you may later regret.

All opinions expressed in this web site, unless otherwise noted, are my own, Michael Gaspard. If you notice any errors or have any suggestions for improvement, please let me know by e-mailing webmaster@mdpme.com. Thank you!

This web page was last updated on Monday, February 2, 2004.
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