Step XI ... Brainstorm: Recognize ALL Possible Variables that May Influence (May Have Influenced) the Situation — Antecedent, Concurrent, Consequent

Imagining ALL variables — past, present and future — that possibly may influence (have influenced) a particular situation under study is not always as simple as perhaps you may immediately realize. The problem is that your own imagination is not 100% accurate or error-free, but can be limited by your own experiences and creativity.

For example, suppose I were to ask you to imagine an alien spaceship. What do you immediately imagine? Probably, the immediate image evoked is an image that you recall from a movie, magazine, newspaper article or otherwise. Subsequently, you may then refine that image a bit when I ask you to imagine the alien craft hovering above your own local place of residence.

Okay. Now, may I ask, did you imagine any loose screws, smudges or fractures in the exterior of that alien craft? Why not? No tarnishes whatsoever? No scratches anywhere? Corrosion? Deteriorating plastic? Peeling paint? Did you imagine perhaps the possibility for some malfunctioning landing gear? Maybe a meteoroid stuck in the side of the ship? Were you imagining a crew of healthy, alert aliens or sick, sleepy, hungry ones?

The point is that your imaginary capability tends to simplify things a bit. We don't customarily bother throwing in all the extra variability into the initial imagined event. More thought is needed before that subsequently happens.

Recognize that unless you actually retrieve the extra variability from your own memory — perhaps because of some specific first-hand experience — your imagination will tend to simplify and idealize things a bit, typically overlooking the many tiny subtleties that could possibly alter the imagined image. Consequently, you will tend to ignore or overlook certain possible variables — however common or rare they may be — if you are unaware of their influence or perhaps even their existence.

Your own competence at holding your particular decision-making position can be put to a strict test here. This is where consulting professionals, extensively researching the matter and seeking the assistance of dedicated others can mean the difference between recognizing that rare, but significant, detail that could seriously hamper your plans or later confronting an embarrassing scenario because you had not recognized its possible significant impact beforehand.

Step XII ... Brainstorm: Recognize ALL Possible Exceptions

There is an exception to every rule ... almost. You should be suspicious of any rule written without at least one exception, because it more than likely sanctions or dictates some course of action that should be avoided in some particular situation. What happens if ... or in the case of ... ? Brainstorm to eliminate all possible irrational consequences that could result from a poorly thought out rule before it pops up and stares you in the face!

This is an issue of preparation - preparing for each possible contingency before it happens.

Remember that our old friend, Reality, is enormously multidimensional! Estimation and prediction based on trends, tendencies and probabilities of occurrence, however accurate they may be, can help us to process loads of data quickly and effectively, but doing so without recognizing a possibility for error, without taking exception or allowing for the possibility of an exception not hitherto considered, can lead to a situation of gross - though perhaps rare - negligence, something that every decision-maker wants to avoid.

Step XIII ... Brainstorm: Discover Alternate Analytical Methods or Approaches to Solving the Problem

There is no one best way to accomplishing a task if you don't know what the other possible ways yet are.

The idea is to rack your mind and use your imaginative and analytical capabilities to the fullest to discover what the other possible approaches are so that you can compare and contrast their feasibilities, pros and cons before trying to do something that you may later regret.

This step differs from Step II because here you aren't directly seeking different courses of action. You're seeking different ways of observing the problem which in turn may result in different ways of solving it so as to produce other possible courses of action that you hadn't yet considered.

To illustrate with a couple examples, consider all the approaches to solving differential equations or all the various chemical processes used to extract and synthesize various chemicals. No single method works 100% of the time, but each method has proven itself useful either in solving countless differential equations or in cheaply and safely extracting and synthesizing tons of chemicals from what raw products and devices are available at a given time. Ever pause to consider how each method was discovered?

Recognize that, unless you have specific knowledge of EVERY possible variable that may influence the situation, your decision-making tends to be limited to a smaller set of possibilities than Reality is capable of throwing your way. We decide according to what we perceive as the most likely to produce the results we want, sometimes without making the effort to imagine alternate possibilities or pursue broader verification of all our simplifying assumptions. It is of utmost importance to brainstorm and recognize ALL possible avenues that you may need to focus your attention on in the way of finding that perhaps single, unique and hidden optimal solution.

This is where the group typically surpasses the individual in decision-making. A problem can be divided and subdivided further, with different individuals focusing all their attention on different facets of the problem. Typically, they will do more in less time than an individual could.

Remember not to reject an idea or subtle possibility as too unusual or strange to warrant further scrutiny. Have an open mind, a willingness to listen to and embrace fresh, new perspectives. Thoroughly analyze ALL possibilities that may subsequently yield some useful solution.

Step XIV ... Brainstorm: Discover Specific Data that Might Subsequently Yield a Better Solution

You may find it helpful to keep in mind that we commonly project our own values, preferences or beliefs onto others, sometimes finding them strange when we discover that they don't think the same way we do. So, anticipating consequences to alternate decisions isn't the simple exercise in introspection that we would sometimes prefer it to be. Could a simple questionnaire completed by your employees help you gage more accurately how they might respond to your decision?

Would a survey of your customers' preferences and/or habits help you in making your decision?

Would a carefully controlled scientific experiment help you in making your decision?

Could a series of experiments conducted now perhaps yield a new approach or possibility later?

Recognize that the behavior of each individual is guided by his or her own beliefs, assumptions, preferences, aversions and moods, and NOT by your own perceptions of the same. Don't try guessing at how another may respond to your decision(s). Don't rely on your personal beliefs to guide you. Instead, stick to the tried and true scientific method of formulating hypotheses and conducting carefully controlled experiments to test their validity.

Step XV ... Is it RIGHT? Or does it just seem right?

The answer to this question relates directly to your own competence at handling the situation. See Competence in Decision Making: A Decision Making Rule. The most competent is always the least likely to err! If you don't know ALL pertinent to the situation, if you haven't total overview, if you're making decisions according to only what seems appropriate from your own limited perspective, then find someone else who doesn't suffer the same decision-making constraints. See also Providing Expert Advice.

What follows is a nifty mnemonic device to help jog your thinking in the way of recognizing what you may be overlooking. You may refer to it as the "However/unless/furthermore Diagram." Those three simple words are the most helpful toward avoiding costly decision-making errors than perhaps any other three English words in existence!

All opinions expressed in this web site, unless otherwise noted, are my own, Michael Gaspard. If you notice any errors or have any suggestions for improvement, please let me know by e-mailing webmaster@mdpme.com. Thank you!

This web page was last updated on Tuesday, May 25, 2004.
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