C. Commitment To Reliability

   A successful group session is an idea machine. Information and ideas flow freely as everyone in the group communicates his or her own perceptions and ideas, knowledge and experience, findings and research. No one argues, because VERIFIABLE FACT determines who is right and who is wrong. Where data is missing and impossible to obtain, potential subsequent consequences are imagined and analyzed in light of the possibility that what seems appropriate may in fact be illusory.

   Everyone remains open-minded. A long list of possibilities is recorded; voice recorders document the entire discussion; copies of this or that are shared freely. In a sense, the group session resembles a body of scientists sharing and documenting their ideas, knowledge and research. This is the human mind at its best.

   But lo! We are still human! Things can go awry at times when we forget our objectivity and cling to certain opinions, perceptions or beliefs without remaining open-minded to broader possibilities. Members of the group may take sides and vociferously defend personal points of view. Human personalities become stubborn sometimes, and this is where the group process begins to break down:

"I don’t believe that!” or

"Oh! That just won’t happen!” or

"If it seems obvious, it must be true!”

   Sound familiar? Typical human thinking. We are born ignorant, and we don't realize that what we know may itself be an outgrowth of partial ignorance, without universal or global validity, because we are totally unaware of certain rare subtleties that could seriously alter the outcome to the situation. Always should we recognize the reliability of what we know, before relying on those perceptions as justification for whatever course of action we choose. Whenever possible, we mustn't respond quickly according to how matters may seem, but rather take the time to imagine possibilities and analyze the situation thoroughly so as to recognize all the subtleties that may influence the final outcome. Otherwise, we may later find ourselves having responded in a way which we may seriously regret.

Don't get involved with proving anything; let the data guide you.
— James A. Dyal, Readings in Psychology: Understanding Human Behavior, 1967.

Genuine intellectual integrity is found in experimental knowing.
— John Dewey, Essays in Experimental Logic.

   Remember that your memories, experiences and emotions steer you in a direction that you perceive to be most appropriate. Don't rely on them to tell you which alternatives are the "right" ones to tend to. Only extensive study and analysis can determine that. Always stick to the facts, to the tried and true scientific method of formulating hypotheses, experimenting to test their validity and repeating those experiments to either verify or contradict the initial results. Or, where such a scientific inquiry is impossible in the time frame within which we must make our decision, always should we carefully consider the possible consequences involved — however improbable any particular one may seem to be — should our assumption of validity turn out to be untrue, inaccurate or more narrowly applicable than we may prefer to recognize.

    You may find it helpful to keep in mind that we commonly project our own values, preferences or beliefs onto others, sometimes finding them strange when we discover that they don't think the same way we do. So, anticipating consequences to alternate possibilities isn't the simple exercise in introspection that we would sometimes prefer it to be. Could a simple questionnaire help you gage more accurately how others might respond to your decision? Or might a survey of their personal preferences and/or habits help you in making your decision? These simple scientific tools can help yield far more reliable results than any exercise in introspection may profess to.

   Additionally, because your own personal perceptions and beliefs over the particular matter at hand may not be completely accurate or valid, consulting a professional who has considerably more knowledge and experience with the subject may provide you with an alternate perspective that you had not previously considered. Or, perhaps he or she could provide you with some new information that you had previously overlooked or otherwise somehow failed to recognize, thereby altering your own personal perception of and/or beliefs surrounding the situation. We all intuitively make assumptions about reality and how we expect it to "behave" each minute of each day. So, what may seem to be apparent to you from your own particular perspective may not actually bear any relevance to someone else with some overview on the situation. Nevertheless, remember that the "authority figures" and "professionals" you rely upon are human just like you, equally susceptible to all the emotions, moods and blunders you are. They do make mistakes! Never assume otherwise. Seek a second opinion: Remember that you're trying to avoid the possibility that the expert whom you are relying upon isn't overlooking some subtle detail which may prove helpful to you. So, seek the advice of another who may possess a different perspective on your particular issue. Do what you can to learn what their fields of professional expertise are: ANY shortcomings in experience, knowledge or resources (access to information) ought to be readily revealed so as to circumvent any potential problems by either

• consulting others whose advice may complement those whom you've already consulted

  or

• finding someone else who may more competently provide you with the information you need.

Realize that the more competent and experienced he or she is with problems like yours in particular, the less likely the potential for oversight and error, that is, the more reliable the advice provided. This is where open communication, consulting other professionals and extensively researching the matter can mean the difference between recognizing that rare, but significant, detail that could seriously hamper your plans or later confronting an embarrassing scenario because the expert you relied upon wasn't familiar with some subtle possibility beforehand.

   However, never allow an influential other to sway you into making a decision. Always stick to the verifiable facts: Remember that behind every opinion is an assumption, behind every life experience is a probability of occurrence, and behind every rigid belief is a personal desire to believe. You are a professional: Don't gamble on the assumptions and/or desires of an influential other. Stick to the tried and true scientific method of formulating hypotheses, experimenting to test their validity and repeating those experiments to either verify or contradict the initial results. After all, YOUR decision is YOUR responsibility, and YOU will be held accountable for ALL subsequent consequences.

   Remember that there is an exception to every rule ... almost. You should be suspicious of any rule without at least one exception written into it, because it more than likely sanctions or dictates some course of action that ought to be avoided in some particular situation. What happens if ... or in the case of ... ? Remember to make exceptions and allow for special cases — however rare or subtle. No matter who you are or what decision you are deciding, you are making some assumptions. We all intuitively make assumptions about Reality and how we expect it to "behave" each minute of each day. Recognize that your own perceptions of Reality are not entirely accurate. You do tend to generalize in some isolated instances, while assuming your knowledge base to be accurate. Don't rely on experience to expose your misperceptions. Allow for this possibility before something unwanted happens. Brainstorm to eliminate all possible irrational consequences that could result from a poorly thought out statement. Remember always to prepare for the unexpected, to imagine the not-so-obvious.

   And always bear in mind that when we imagine particular events, we sometimes utilize personal beliefs that help us to generalize and simplify the mental work needed to effectively imagine the scenarios. Consequently, certain subtleties are sometimes overlooked or completely ignored due to our — perhaps stubborn — tenacity to cling to those cherished beliefs. Realize that your own imagination is not 100% accurate or error-free, but can be limited by your own experiences and creativity. Initially, unless you actually have some specific first-hand experience stored in memory, your imagination will tend to simplify and idealize things a bit, typically overlooking the many tiny subtleties that could possibly alter the imagined image. Consequently, you will tend to ignore or overlook certain possible variables — however common or rare they may be — if you are unaware of their influence or perhaps even their existence. We don't customarily bother throwing in all the possible variability into our initial imagined scenarios: More thought is needed before that subsequently happens.

   Your own competence at holding your particular decision-making position can be put to a strict test here. "Am I familiar with all the knowledge and ongoing research? Do I have access to all the information and/or resources needed to effectively navigate through this situation?” Keeping up-to-date and competent can go a long way toward helping you to imagine that most appropriate course of action needed to successfully and/or most effectively solve the situation at hand.

   Finally, realize the inherent limitations to the scientific and statistical methods themselves. Scientific experiments must be repeated — over and over and over again — before the conclusions become accepted as "verified and true.” Don't conduct one tiny experiment yourself and regard the conclusion generally applicable or sufficient grounds for the decisions you make. If the sample size taken is too small, the conclusion must be verified again, perhaps repeatedly. Furthermore, recognize that statistical inductive inference is not perfect. This means that any inductive inference can sometimes fail. Even though the premises may be true, the conclusion may be false. Though a good inductive inference gives us sufficient reason to believe that a conclusion is probably true, there is always a possibility that some particular rare occurrence may have been overlooked. Furthermore, remember that the reliability of an inductive inference depends on the similarity of the sample to the population. The greater the similarity, the more reliable the inductive inference. This is a problem that statisticians work hard at avoiding by making certain that samples are selected at random, something that is not always as easy to do as you may perhaps perceive.

All opinions expressed in this web site, unless otherwise noted, are my own, Michael Gaspard. If you notice any errors or have any suggestions for improvement, please let me know by e-mailing webmaster@mdpme.com. Thank you!

This web page was last updated on Monday, February 2, 2004.
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