managing decision- priority- mental error
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Avoiding Mental Error:
General   and   Professional (page 14)
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   As an individual, aspiring to project some particular image of yourself which may commonly be recognized as "respectable" or somehow "superior" may be a good thing. More often, however, it sets one up for an embarrassing display of some clumsy, awkward behavior unsuited to your particular personality or the social environment you are finding yourself in — i.e., incongruent with the particular personalities of the observers of the behavior. As awkward as this behavior may seem, we must recognize it as a natural human inclination: Look into human history and you will find "professionals” sporting bushy mustaches and beards, wearing long wigs or silly-looking clothing, projecting "austere" demeanors, and on and on, all in attempt to either "fit in” with what everyone else seemed to be doing at the time or to project some sort of image of "superiority."

...people often distort their thoughts about reality in order to make themselves feel more comfortable or happier. — (Norman) Stuart Sutherland, Irrationality: Why We Don't Think Straight!, 1992.

People like to kid themselves.
Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards,
Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, 1993.

   Such clumsiness compounds when we begin to "act superior,” somehow believing that the occupation or position assumed implicates possession of some sort of "superior frame of mind" which we must either project onto others or openly impose and demand that others respect, forcing others to suffer whatever consequences (attempts at embarrassment?) you may have in mind if they don't comply or conform with your self-perceived status.

   Foolish? Yes. Rare? No. This behavior persists to this very day, in the 3rd millennium A.D.

   It would be prudent for everyone to keep in mind that it is NOT your mental superiority which sets you apart as "professionals"; it is your knowledge and training.

   Acting superior is for children, not professionals.

IV. Size

   How many? 2 or 3? 12 or 13? or more?

   Unfortunately, there is no clear-cut answer, only subjective guides. The dominant advice seems to be, "If you are absolutely confident that all alternatives have been imagined and amply discussed, that nothing could possibly have been overlooked — no necessary research untried; no perspectives, viewpoints or analytical techniques ignored; no rare possibilities, special cases or exceptions to the rule(s) avoided; no second-, third- or fourth-opinions neglected — then perhaps you’re ready to make a final decision.”

   Yes, perhaps. Remember, we're all human. We are never free of all potential for error. Just use your imagination a bit to recognize this. As much planning and training and advance preparation as may go into anything we do, there is always a potential for error that we just can never avoid (e.g., the captain daydreams or suddenly faints or sneezes at some crucial point — and everyone else's attention happened to have been focused on some other non-trivial matter at that time). The possibilities are endless, and Reality never gives us a second chance at getting it right.

   So, what do we do? Obviously, the best we can. Always.

   The problems that could arise as a consequence of selecting a group of too small a size should be apparent — particular data overlooked, possibilities never considered, analytical approaches never attempted. These are just the same problems associated with relying exclusively on some individual for all decisions. Just as no single human mind can be expected to know everything, we cannot hold a similar expectation for a group of too small a size. Furthermore, if we don't exert the necessary effort to ascertain divergent and open-minded thinking among the members comprising the group, even a large group would suffer similarly.

   Perhaps the best advice to adhere to when trying to figure out "How many?” is this:

How Many Participants To Occupy The Group?

  1. Competence:  First, how many competent individuals would you prefer to have address each particular issue or facet of the problem? Always recognize the value of that second opinion. Therefore, two should probably be set as a minimum here.

  2. Perspectives:  Second, try to recognize all the relevant perspectives that would be invaluable to you in the way of reaching an optimal solution. A tidy means for doing this is discussed in Solutions: Seeking Optimal Solutions. Simply, it is this — Past/Present/Future. How many relevant perspectives are you imagining? Are you willing to risk leaving any one of them out of the group discussions?

  3. Subdivide:  Third, try to recognize how many sub-problems that the situation may be divided into and how many individuals would be required to work on each if a solution is to be arrived at in some particular time frame. (For example: Hiring only one architect to design a superstructure may be sufficient, but could nevertheless become extraordinarily time-consuming.) How many individuals would you need to work on each sub-problem? and sub-problems to sub-problems?

  4. Defocus:  Fourth, keep open-minded to what your group is saying. Upon brainstorming to recognize all the avenues of analysis that they may need to focus attention on in the way of finding some hidden, creative, optimal solution, they may request more group participants to help reduce the workload so that the problem may be thoroughly analyzed, divided and subdivided and solved on time. How many extras are they requesting?


   ...which, at last makes plain the third primary reason for opting with a group rather than an individual to solve your particular problem — reducing the amount of time needed to analyze everything. Certainly, for complex tasks a group of dedicated and competent professionals can successfully complete the required chore(s) in a considerably shorter period of time than any one individual could. Always must we remember, though, that what we perceive to be an appropriate group size may subsequently turn out to be too small if the group is to thoroughly analyze e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g in the way of avoiding overlooking some particular subtle — yet non-trivial — detail. Always remain open-minded to their suggestions (and complaints).

What I am suggesting is an attitude and an understanding between employees and managers that acknowledges the inevitability of diversions and discoveries and seeks to work with them rather than apologizing or obscuring what is happening. We must give people the right to acknowledge that they are constantly re-perceiving and reorganizing their work.... We must give them the right to be assessors of their own work, giving them time and tools to reflect and re-conceive what they are accomplishing. We will do this not just because it is good democratic policy, but because it is inherently the nature of human activity.... People do not simply plan and do. They continuously adjust and invent. Managing this process means managing learning, not managing application of a plan.
William J Clancey, "Practice Cannot be Reduced to Theory: Knowledge, Representations, and Change in the Workplace," 1995, in Organizational Learning and Technological Change, by S Bagnara, C. Zuccermaglio and S. Stucky (Editors); papers from the NATO Workshop held September 22-26, 1992 in Siena, Italy.

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This web page was last updated on Monday, February 2, 2004.
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