| Avoiding Mental Error: | ||||||||||
| General and Professional (page 5) | ||||||||||
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Avoiding error Beliefs & fallacies Books & software
| | < Previous | | Next > | I t is my hope that Part One: General Overview helps to
By "concerned," of course, is meant that you should be motivated to at least periodically ascertain that things are "going as planned," rather than blindly assuming that no mistakes could possibly be made from the moment you first communicated your plans all the way through to the final completion of the intended project. Checking up on and monitoring others is not a trivial routine to be taken lightly. It is sometimes perhaps the only means for catching those mistakes that could lead to serious problems later on. A similar line of reasoning holds for the process of REVIEWING FOR POSSIBLE ERROR, before actually communicating that intended plan or making some final, weighty decision of considerable importance and consequence. "Have I addressed all the possibilities? Am I failing to recognize or discuss some rare exception to the rule that could potentially wreck serious havoc on all my planning?” Up to this point you should have the mental tools needed to
This section and the next are devoted to helping you focus your attention on important abstract ideals that will then help you to recognize actual subtleties which you may have initially overlooked before they surface as serious decision-making deficiencies. Which brings us to the topic for discussion occupying Part Two: Catching Errors. No matter who you are or how much experience you may have, in whatever field, the potential for overlooking or simply forgetting certain subtle possibilities is always there. I have personally witnessed all too many supposed experts fall "to their knees" when they recognized some new possibility that they had never heretofore considered or just considered "too unlikely" to warrant any serious consideration. (SIMPLE EXAMPLE: What's the minimum age to become accused of a devious crime? What's the necessary minimum age for any single human being to become such a criminal suspect? How long would it take you to arrive at the actual age of 2? That's right, two. Though common sense tells us that a toddler would likely be cleared of any wrongdoing, our officials have deemed the little 2-year old [perhaps that should be closer to 2 ½ or 2 ¾] "smart enough" to warrant becoming the subject of a serious investigative inquiry. Having read this, does this tidbit of factual information now alter your own perception of what a criminal suspect may look like?) The human experience is all about learning and discovery. If modern science doesn't purport to "know" everything, why is it that some humans claim to? Recognize that we are all still learning about Reality all around us. Our supposed "experts" are doing the best they can with everything that we know now, but we cannot expect them to know EVERYTHING. They are human too. They do make mistakes! Even when they think they wont! To effectively avoid all possibility for subsequent error, professional decision-making is undoubtedly a group process. No single human being can be expected to imagine every possibility in every situation: To err is human! To help make this point plain, consider the following discussion: This may seem unnecessary, but for the sake of clarity in discussion, let
Realize that only three factors determine whether or not you will recognize variable V for it's potential significant influence in time T:
The first of these three depends on your
And the second and third of these three depend on
[ . . continued on next page > > ]
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