managing decision- priority- mental error
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Avoiding Mental Error:
General   and   Professional (page 6)
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So, to summarize ...

 RECOGNIZING HIDDEN VARIABLES

Whether or not you recognize a hidden variable for its potential significant influence on your perceived solution to a problem in some given time frame depends on your:

  1. Recollection of actual or similar information, which in turn depends on your:
    1. Experience,
    2. Training, and
    3. Ability to Accurately Recollect.
  2. Attentive Focus and Perceptiveness, which in turn depend on your:
    1. Creativity,
    2. Open-mindedness at recognizing practical possibility,
    3. Access to New Information,
    4. Mobility or ability to witness some relevant scenario, and
    5. Diversions: are you tending to anything else other than focusing all your efforts at solving the particular problem at hand?

 


   Now, may I ask, does this list of mental pitfalls look like something that one person would be able to effectively navigate around, totally? without any hint of error? 100% of the time? Don't think so. No single human mind has so much information or is so "mechanically" endowed.

   So, does assembling a group solve all our problems? Again, no. Though group discussions and brainstorming sessions can help at eliminating many of these problems — namely,

  • Experience & Training: a gathering of minds brings together a lot more experience and knowledge from a wider variety of possible sources than any one person could ever individually experience and learn;

  • Ability to Recollect: group discussions can help to jog a single individual’s memory;

  • Creativity: group brainstorming can yield imaginative possibilities that a single individual may not solely consider;

  • Open-mindedness: group brainstorming can open your thinking up to new possibilities that you had heretofore, say, considered too "silly” or "impractical” to warrant any further consideration;

  • Access to New Information: a group of researchers can gather a lot more information in a lot less time and from a wider variety of informative sources than a single person could

— group discussions can also actually contribute to several — namely,

  • Mobility: if everyone has to sit down and talk to each other, considerable time is robbed from actually going out and visiting other sites to learn about alternate solutions to similar situations;

  • Diversion: the group process itself is a grand diversion away from seriously focusing on and analyzing the problem and toward a fun social gathering or "party” of sorts: "Who’s bringing bagels? Beverages?” In short, the group process can become a considerable drain on available time and effort;

  • Attentive Focus and Perceptual Diversion: again, assembling a group confines everyone’s thinking to the current conversation or meeting: "How many chairs?” or "What horrible traffic to get here!or "Nice new table!” Worse yet, and this is a big problem of dreadful consequence, sometimes groups fail to brainstorm away from some accepted mode of thinking, never to recognize some rare possibility or perhaps some common assumption held among all the participants. More about this on the next several pages and in Part III: Avoiding Errors.

   But, the troubles don't end there! (See Solutions: Seeking Optimal Solutions .) Group decision making is notoriously inefficient,2 not only for these reasons above, but also because some rather unwanted personality conflicts can arise when we assemble large groups. Assembling a large group of people will usually lead to a large number of opinions, personal attitudes and beliefs. There are time conflicts among those who want to be there but cannot, disinterestedness among those who don't want to be there but are, some who wind up dominating (perhaps controlling) particular discussions, some conflicting personalities, some timid ones as well. Moreover, the more competent members sometimes find themselves having to educate the lesser competent, and the dedicated or loyal sometimes find themselves frustrated by those who don't share a similar commitment. This is not to say that the opinions of the others are valueless, but unless you spend some time to carefully select who comprises the group assigned to solving the problem, don't expect them to yield a very carefully analyzed decision. Expect, at best perhaps, a popular solution that may not actually be the most optimal.

... the pooled judgments of a group tend to be worse than those of the best qualified member when most other members are not competent to judge the issue.
Daniel D Wheeler and Irving Lester Janis,
A Practical Guide for Making Decisions, 1980. Click here for more from these two authors.

   The way around all this inefficiency, of course, is by ascertaining a particular competence level among all the participants, as well as a shared dedication to a common goal,2 that is, finding those best solutions for solving the particular problem.

   Additionally must you realize that finding the most optimal solution to your particular problem lies not so much in assembling a discussion group as it does in seeking out ALL relevant perspectives on the issue ... not to mention brainstorming ... and diligent research and analysis. If the members chosen to comprise your group don't bring together, or at least seek out, a wide variety of perspectives ... if they don't actively try to overcome their typical modes of thinking to arrive at a clump of creative, new possibilities ... if they don't make the effort to go out and thoroughly research the matter ... or if they don't try to analyze the problem using a myriad of possible approaches or techniques ... you won't get anything other than the "expected" or "conventional" means to solving the problem. Although, the "conventional" approach may actually be the single, most optimal, never ever to be improved upon, it is always nice to have at least a handful of alternate possible approaches that we may try at improving upon in time in the case of some novel future developments.

   Nevertheless, despite all these shortcomings, with some advance planning, selecting and organizing, the advantages of using the group process will usually far outweigh all the potential disadvantages. Usually, when we take the extra effort at selecting appropriate members and do what we can to ascertain that all goes well, the group can efficiently and effectively yield phenomenal and novel solutions. Of course, the effectiveness of all your advance preparation isn't recognized until long after the group's final decision is implemented: "Since no problems have developed, apparently we must have thought of everything! Or, at least, so it would seem.

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All opinions expressed in this web site, unless otherwise noted, are my own, Michael Gaspard. If you notice any errors or have any suggestions for improvement, please let me know by e-mailing webmaster@mdpme.com. Thank you!

This web page was last updated on Monday, February 2, 2004.
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