managing decision- priority- mental error
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Simpleminded Error: (page 2)
Avoiding Simplemindedness in Decision Making
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One:  Our Problem

  I. Mental Focus

   Your mind is not a machine — comprehensive and exhaustive, of infinite capacity, untiring or non-forgetting. It’s amazing enough for this chunk of carbon (and hydrogen, and some other elements) to be alive, let alone to be capable of complex thought! We shouldn't expect perfection out of something so ordinary to begin with. The human mind is limited to its very size and chemical biology, and even when we endeavor to do better we still fall short. Some aspects of a new scenario under study may be overlooked, blatantly ignored or otherwise trivialized somehow, and only in time do we realize the better way.

   The problem is that we focus. We isolate each aspect of a problem bit by bit and direct all our attention on each individual bit one at a time. Reality is far too complex for us to grasp in totality all the variables entering into every situation every time. Sometimes we do just fine. In fact, for ordinary living in solo — for the countless decisions one person must make day-to-day to survive on this planet — our minds are too powerful. We can get by on less. Other times, however (once we choose to assume greater responsibility, for example), we cannot. The modern world can throw some rather strange scenarios our way, posing too much complexity for everyone to effectively navigate through all the time. So, we have trained specialists and personal computers to turn to nowadays to help us manage the vast complexity. Education, libraries and the internet have all replaced the old-fashioned wisdom gained through hands-on, trial-and-error experience.

   Upon encountering a new scenario for the first time, we immediately begin recollecting similar scenarios experienced before while analyzing the current scenario as it stands. As we begin to imagine various outcomes to various means of attempting to solve the problem, we tend to expect certain outcomes over others precisely as they were experienced beforehand.

   This is where simpleminded error begins to creep in. This could happen when we become diverted and address matters of secondary or lesser significance than the primary matter requiring immediate or urgent attention. We may allow someone to influence our attention away from that matter of greatest importance. Or we may become diverted by the surrounding circumstances to the situation: "What beautiful scenery!” Or we may even choose to look the wrong way deliberately, out of ignorance, laziness, spite or lack of preparation.

   Simpleminded error could also happen if you were to act on impulse rather than taking the time to consider what you might be overlooking. Recognize that it is your emotional drives and personal store of memories that inherently shape your natural decision-making tendencies. You may do just fine in controlling your own emotional predispositions, but you must learn to also recognize the fundamental flaw behind assuming validity to all the conclusions suggested by your store of memories. Memories of past successes and failures, for example, may be rooted in probability of occurrence. What you remember as an outcome to what you may have tried before may not be the only outcome potentially possible. Perhaps some underlying third variable hadn't entered into the situation you remember, or perhaps there was actually an undetected third variable that set off the chain of events as you now remember them. Probability portends experience.*

  So, not only do we focus all our attention on preferred aspects of a particular problem over others, but also on preferred possibilities — precedent, concurrent, consequent — over others. We prefer to believe one past possibility over another or one potential future outcome to another. We don't allow for everything. Our minds are incapable of considering Reality in totality for every new situation we might encounter. Therefore, we prefer to take shortcuts. We store perceptions in memory and later rely upon them for arriving at quick conclusions which we feel will probably be correct. Problems arise, however, when we begin to assume total validity to these mental shortcuts — biases, stereotypes or other false expectations — perhaps too stubbornly at times, generalizing them too broadly to too many scenarios, rather than remaining open-minded to new, never hitherto experienced possibilities.

   When a creative individual suggests something new to you, do you scoff and remark, "How strange!” or do you analyze and suggest, "How might we do even better? Have you tried ... ?” We prefer to allow our perceptions and immediate emotional attitudes to guide our thinking rather than actively putting our minds to work (the very same perceptions and emotional responses that are molded by daily living). Experience portends today's emotional attitude.

   To help overcome all the problems discussed above, remember these three simple, but important, mental programs:

  1. Remember to BRAINSTORM. Avoid focusing all your attention on only one particular outcome or only a few precedents perceived as "the most likely." IMAGINE ALTERNATE OUTCOMES. IMAGINE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITIES. Expose your own assumptions, and prove to yourself that they need not necessarily hold true.

  2. Recognize the value of EFFORT. We are lazy, and at times even when we are at work do we work to reduce our workload. We may focus our attention too heavily on, "What is expected of me?” rather than on, "What more I can do?” Sometimes must we realize that our very positions may make us privy to knowing what others may quite possibly be overlooking. Keep a CONCERNED and CARING mental outlook. Sometimes all we have to avert serious repercussion are those few who CARE to point out matters requiring further attention. Rather than idly assuming, "That’s just not my job. I'm not going to worry over it,” say something! Later on, you'll likely be glad you did.

  3. Remember SELFLESSNESS. Sometimes what's best for everyone really and truly hurts YOU. Are you prepared "to do the RIGHT thing”? Or shall you insist on focusing all your attention on your own selfish interests — self-protection, selfish gain, attempting to maintain your status despite obvious inadequacies, avoiding relinquishing control despite obvious incompetencies, avoiding embarrassment, and so on — whatever the potential consequences?

   (Mnemonic: B E S T: Brainstorm, Effort, Selflessness and Time. Time shall always remain your greatest adversary as a decision-maker. Time limits what you can do to recognize, recall, imagine and analyze in the way of finding a best way.)

   In summary: Focus on the BIG PICTURE. Focus on ALL the POSSIBILITIES rather than the few you may be familiar with or expect. Moreover ... what's BEST for EVERYONE? What's RIGHT? What's RESPONSIBLE? What's SAFEST? What's the most COMPASSIONATE? What's the FAIREST to all? What's the MOST COMPETENT course of action? What's an even BETTER alternative to the one you may be considering? How could you IMPROVE? Sometimes these ideas clash, and some of the decisions that you must make shall at times put some ideals ahead of the others. Consider your PRIORITIES to decide which ones should apply most significantly to your own particular situation. Always shall you find COMPASSION and SAFETY vying for the top of your priority list. Finally, always must you consider your own capability at and the amount of time you may have available for arriving at and implementing your final decision.

 II. Time and Resources

   In addition to focusing too sharply on a smaller set of possibilities than in fact may apply to our own situation, matters can become even worse when we find ourselves with little time and/or resources to thoroughly analyze or check on every aspect of the situation. More time means more done. And more done means greater preparation. If you have it, don't waste it. Use the time you have to prepare. Rather than focusing on what leisure you may enjoy with the time available, focus instead on preparation for what may be to come. Reality won't provide you with a second chance.

"Where is this headed? What must I do to prepare for everything?”

   We are human, and it is the human tendency to forget and overlook things at times, especially when emotions are high and/or time is short. When we find ourselves rushed into making swift decisions, we usually respond according to the most appropriate action that first comes to mind without exerting much thought about all possible subsequent outcomes and criticisms (consequences), subtleties or rare exceptions we may be overlooking (safety) or prior factors perhaps prompting the scenario as a setup for an illusion which we might respond to in some predictable way that another may be waiting to prey upon (security).

Executives must keep in mind that almost any one of thousands of employees can plunge an entire corporation into a crisis through either misdeed or oversight .... — Norman R. Augustine, "Managing the Crisis You Tried To Prevent,” in Harvard Business Review, November-December 1995.

   Moreover, our selfish and stupid instincts can interfere with our thinking at times and lead us to some, well, selfish and stupid decisions. Rather than CONSISTENTLY consider what is Right and Caring for everyone, at times when we feel rushed into making swift and urgent decisions, we immediately focus on self and stampede our way, trampling on others, out of the burning building.

   If we were to just force ourselves to at least consider the SELFLESS option, we may not overlook the possibility at times. In so doing, we may more frequently recognize our own self-centered motives before they blind us away from some other, more compassionate approach, that is, away from CARING and toward some self-protective avoidance or selfish gain. Our thinking becomes blinded at times when we begin to worry excessively about self. We fail to consider alternate CARING options that may be available if only we would take the time to consider them.. Our self-centered emotions at times lead us down the beach like crocodiles seeking another marsh. Going back or turning left or right aren't viable options; only one direction is tenable.

   But of course this is time-dependent. We need time to imagine, to recognize those better options available to us. Time gives us options, and more options to select from potentially leads to better choices. Where there is ample time, there is no excuse for overlooking more compassionate approaches to solving problems. Where resources may provide us with a myriad of potential approaches, time provides us with the ability to recognize Right.

   Professional decision-makers must remain perpetually aware of these stupid, selfish tendencies.

  • Time granted, we must prepare for dire possibilities yet to come. Think, "Consequences, Safety, Security, Care and Concern.”

  • Resources granted, we must expend the effort needed to ascertain that we are responding indeed to how matters actually are rather than to how they may seem. Validate your perceptions before responding in a way that you may later regret.

See also Avoiding Error: Advance Preparation.

III. Ignorance: See also Competence In Decision Making: A Decision Making Rule.

   We are all born ignorant!

   In no human lifespan does any one of us learn everything about everything.

   So why do some of us insist on the opposite? They think they know it all!

   Why? How absurd!

_________________________________
   *This statement uses the word "portend" in a new way contrary to modern dictionary definitions. What is meant here is, "Probability sets up and underlies experience, typically in some bad way." Our English language is forever evolving. Will this new usage for an old word "catch on"? Well, let's see ....

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All opinions expressed in this web site, unless otherwise noted, are my own, Michael Gaspard. If you notice any errors or have any suggestions for improvement, please let me know by e-mailing webmaster@mdpme.com. Thank you!

This web page was last updated on Monday, February 2, 2004.
http://www.mdpme.com/simple2.htm

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