What's the primary source of all mental error?

   There are three that you have some control over —

• your selfish instincts — self-protective, self-attainment, desire, avoiding embarrassment, and so on;
• aversion to mental stress;
• lack of information —

   ...and three that have some control over you:

• overlooking — failure to notice or imagine;
• misremembering — imagining that which was never actually there;
• forgetting.

   Some may include "a dogged adherence to personal beliefs, refusing to allow specific possibilities” in either of these lists, but beliefs are countered by imagining alternatives and/or learning new, contradictory information. So, "belief error" is actually a consequence of the inherent mental pitfalls listed above, though it may not be immediately recognized as such (unless we begin to include particular personality faults in that list — e.g., obstinacy, arrogance, foolish pride — but personality faults such as these run contrary to reason. I'd rather assume that you are a reasonable individual). The same is also true for personal assumptions/perceptions/stereotypes and false expectations, though an arrogant assumption of competence may be difficult to dissuade given perhaps a lengthy experience record or high rate of success. One must always bear in mind that a lot of experience and high rate of success at some particular task — though especially desirable — do not necessarily preclude the potential for error.

   Ignorance and habit are likely the most probable causes behind most instances of mental error. When we are ignorant, we lack needed information that might otherwise have helped us to recognize some important subtlety we are overlooking. If we persist in our ignorance and respond to some new scenario habitually, perceiving it as something which it is quite not — because we haven't all the information about all factors shaping it — we set ourselves up for making a decision of potentially unforeseen and catastrophic consequences.

   Most instances of this sort of mental error can be avoided if we would just take some time to...

1. Imagine other possibilities and alternatives, rather than blindly assuming that things will always work out in a way that they always had before.

2. Furthermore, if we made the effort to study problems completely, so as to thoroughly recognize all factors possibly shaping the current situation, might we be able to avoid overlooking subtle details that could seriously hamper all our planning later on.

3. The same can be said, of course, about all the assumptions which may be resting within the foundation of our decision-making. Making the effort to ascertain the accuracy of those assumptions is yet another step we could take to avoid any unforeseen problems from occurring later on.

   As demonstrated above and on the next FOURTEEN pages, the potential for error may be mitigated or minimized by ascertaining a certain level of competence at handling some particular task, but almost never eliminated entirely. There are sources for mental error that can creep up on us — even the most competent of us — and catch us off guard, perhaps when we least expect. Never assume your (or that of esteemed others) beliefs and/or knowledge-base to be totally accurate or error-free.

   One means of avoiding mental error is thus:

• Recognize the reasons serving as the grounds for your decision.
• Then, recognize that those reasons may actually be influenced by your own personal assumptions: perceptions (physical, verbal, emotional) that are possibly incorrect or incomplete. What research or consultation should you pursue to ascertain their accuracy? What other possibilities might you be overlooking? And so on.

   When the human mind finds itself having to exert considerable toil toward reaching some particular end, the temptation to take shortcuts to reduce the necessary work — mental and physical — is always there, and we sometimes rely on our own beliefs, stereotypes or rules-of-thumb to help reduce the mental load. The only logical recourse then, to help us from making some erroneous assumption which may perhaps later yield some potentially devastating consequence(s), is to select a group of minds who may effectively reduce the mental burden in an attempt to prevent any fine detail from being overlooked. But, as demonstrated on these following pages, even this solution may be imperfect.

All opinions expressed in this web site, unless otherwise noted, are my own, Michael Gaspard. If you notice any errors or have any suggestions for improvement, please let me know by e-mailing webmaster@mdpme.com. Thank you!

This web page was last updated on Monday, February 2, 2004.
http://www.mdpme.com/reason.htm

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